Type 2 diabetes (T2D) has posed a formidable challenge to public health throughout high-income nations due to the high prevalence of sedentism and diets rich in sugars and carbohydrates. Among the countries struggling to curb the diabetes epidemic is the UK, which has launched several initiatives to prevent and monitor the disease. This challenge has been captured in a recent study by Naomi Holman and colleagues in the July 2026 edition of The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, in which the authors measure historical trends in T2D incidence in England across multiple demographic groups. Their findings show a sharp increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes in the 2020s, particularly among young people. GlobalData epidemiologists project a rise in the diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D from 4.74 to 5.04 million between 2026 and 2028 in the UK. In the event the trends described by Holman and colleagues continue, this trend may be even more accelerated than previously expected.
To measure the incidence of T2D, the authors leveraged data from England’s National Diabetes Audit (NDA) among adults between 2011 and 2024. Cases were identified using medical coding for T2D in primary care and hospital settings. Additionally, incidence was segmented by age, sex, and race to provide demographic details. As displayed in Table 1, the overall incidence of T2D rose from 4.07 to 4.54 per 1,000 population between 2011 and 2024, with a sharp increase between 2022 and 2023. This trend was observed across all age cohorts except the 60-79-years age group, in which incidence declined over time. Similarly, increasing incidence was present among participants of white, Black, and Asian ethnicity. Among the most pronounced increases was in the 20-29-years age group, in which incidence increased at an annual rate of 2.1% for men and 3.0% for women between 2011 and 2024, with a similarly rapid rate of increase observed in the 30-39-years age group. The authors suggest that overall increases in incidence in diabetes are attributed not only to increasing risk factors such as obesity and sedentism, but also higher rates of screening for diabetes. Furthermore, the post-Covid spike in incidence rate could be a result of lacking preventive services that could have mitigated new cases of diabetes during the time when basic medical care operations were reduced due to the pandemic.
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Holman and colleagues’ findings bring attention to an alarming trend in the UK diabetes landscape. Despite preventive initiatives such as education and expanded access to HbA1c diagnostic testing, their analysis suggests that further efforts are required to curb the diabetes epidemic. Their work can also inform more targeted initiatives, which should be directed with greater intensity at young people. Given the cumulative risks of living with T2D, early intervention is critical to prevent morbidity and mortality. To accomplish this, the authors recommend age- and sex-targeted prevention efforts that address not only T2D but obesity, a significant diabetes risk factor, through education on physical activity and diet. Moreover, they suggest more aggressive screening targeting young people with pre-diabetes. In addition to these interventions, UK policymakers and public health authorities must continue comprehensive surveillance efforts in order to track progress and refine subgroups at the highest risk of diabetes incidence.
Figure 1: Incidence of type 2 diabetes in England, ages 20-79 years, men and women, 2011-2024, cases per 1,000 population
