Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a global health burden. The term encompasses several different conditions, one of most common of which is coronary artery disease. In the US alone, GlobalData epidemiologists predict there will be 18.85 million diagnosed prevalent cases of coronary artery disease in men and women aged above 20 by the end of 2025, and this number is estimated to increase to 19.84 cases by the end of 2032.
There is a gap in the literature in which the association between cardiovascular health (CVH) and later risk of incident CVD is examined and quantified. Guo and colleagues used this as the rationale for their study, which found an association between low CVH and increased CVD risk. This study was published in 2025, in JAMA Open Network.
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In 1985 and 1986, a total of 5,115 healthy Black and white participants aged between 18 and 30 were recruited into the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) prospective longitudinal study in the US. As researchers, Guo and colleagues aimed to examine whether patterns and trajectories of CVH during young adulthood had an impact on the risk of developing CVD in later life. The researchers analysed data on 4,241 of the eligible participants from the CARDIA study and assessed for the study outcome – incident cases of CVD – in a 35-year follow-up period. CVH was assessed based on the American Heart Association Life’s Essential 8 score, and participants were categorised into four groups: moderate-to-low declining, moderate declining, persistently moderate and persistently high CVH.
The moderate-to-low declining group had the highest crude incidence rate of 10.33 per 10,000 person-years for CVD fatal and non-fatal events. A decline in CVD risk was seen in the moderate declining group, persistently moderate and persistently high groups with incidence rates of 5.70, 2.30 and 0.97 per 1,000 person-years. The risk of CVD in the moderate-to-low declining group was therefore 9.96 times greater than that of the participants in the persistently high group.
In a complementary analysis, the researchers looked at CVH change whilst factoring in the direction of the change: whether CVH was increasing, declining or stable. Participants in the stable high CVH group had a 0.25 risk of developing CVD, meaning good CVH had a protective effect against CVD, whilst those in the stable low CVD group had a 5.91 risk for developing CVD.
These findings can be used to draw conclusions on risk factor during early adulthood on the risk of CVD in later life, highlighting the very potentially significant consequences low CVH could have on health in later life.
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By GlobalData