The Parkinson’s disease (PD) market across the seven major markets (7MM: the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan) is poised to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% from $3.4bn in 2023 to $7.0bn in 2033, according to GlobalData’s recently published report, ‘Parkinson’s Disease: Seven-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis – Update‘. This growth will be driven by the anticipated launches of eight late-stage pipeline products during the forecast period.
With an estimated $2.1bn in drug sales, the US dominated the PD market in 2023, representing 63.1% of the 7MM sales. GlobalData expects the US to remain as the leading market throughout the forecast period, generating sales of $4.9bn in 2033, representing 69.7% of the overall market across the 7MM. This dominating position within the 7MM is a result of the significantly higher costs of marketed products in the US and a high diagnosed prevalence.
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GlobalData anticipates the launch of six new symptomatic treatments for PD. Pipeline assets that target the motor symptoms of PD include NeuroDerm’s ND-0612 (carbidopa + levodopa), AbbVie’s tavapadon, Pharma Two B’s P2B001, Cerevance’s solengepras, and PharmaTher Holdings’ Ketarx. In addition to the debilitating motor symptoms suffered by PD patients, an array of non-motor symptoms, such as PD dementia and PD psychosis, are also recognised parts of the disease. Within the 7MM, there is only one late-stage pipeline agent under investigation for addressing non-motor symptoms of PD that is anticipated to launch during the forecast period, Anavex’s blarcamesine for the treatment of PD dementia. GlobalData forecasts that the six new symptomatic treatments for PD will contribute sales of $1.6bn in the 7MM by 2033. A couple of pipeline assets that target PD dementia and PD falls associated with impaired balance and postural instability have been halted in development. This highlights the challenges associated with drug development in these patient populations.
As PD therapy currently centres on symptomatic treatment, the need for disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) is one of the greatest unmet needs in the PD space. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData agreed that if a product significantly slowed the progression of PD, it would have the potential to revolutionise the treatment of the disease. A major focus of R&D in the PD space is the development of first-in-class products with disease-modifying or neuroprotective potential. As α-synuclein aggregates play an important role in PD disease pathogenesis and neurodegeneration, this potentially neurotoxic protein is a key molecular target for DMTs. GlobalData anticipates the launch of two late-stage products that target α-synuclein during the forecast period: Roche’s prasinezumab and Annovis Bio’s buntanetap. Both products have faced a series of hurdles that have slowed their drug development progress, having failed to reach the primary endpoint in their pivotal trials (prasinezumab NCT03100149 and NCT0477733, buntanetap NCT05357989). But sub-group analysis and data from exploratory endpoints show promise of disease-modifying properties. Buntanetap and prasinezumab are estimated to generate global sales of $390.2m and $207.3m by 2033, respectively. Furthermore, DMTs are expected to contribute 8.5% of the PD market by 2033.
According to GlobalData’s Drug Database, there are currently 15 cell therapies in Phase I-III development for PD. BlueRock Therapeutics’ bemdaneprocel is the furthest progressed among the cell therapies. Since PD occurs due to the degeneration of the dopaminergic neurons, bemdaneprocel involves stereotactically transplanting dopaminergic neuronal progenitor stem cells directly into the posterior putamen of PD patients. This is hoped to arrest disease progression and improve both motor and non-motor symptoms. Bemdaneprocel is currently in a Phase III development trial (exPDite-2 [NCT06944522]) and if successful, it would offer a novel DMT to the PD market that will compete with the α-synuclein inhibitors. While the PD market is projected to grow during the forecast period across the 7MM, it will face some barriers that will curtail its growth. Potential barriers to growth of the global PD market include the loss of exclusivity of several key branded products that are expected to face patent and data exclusivity expiration, leading to brand erosion due to the emergence of generics. Nonetheless, the launches of the pipeline therapies, including symptomatic and disease-modifying therapies, will drive market growth.
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