Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular diseases, obesity and type 2 diabetes are collectively responsible for around 74% of all deaths globally, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) are widely recognised as a significant contributor to the occurrence of NCDs.
Globally, a steady rise in the consumption of UPFs has been observed over the past few years. A study published in The Lancet by Carlos Monteiro and colleagues in November 2025 suggests that a higher proportion of UPFs in a diet is a key driver of the escalating burden of multiple chronic diseases. As the consumption of UPF continues to rise, it’s likely that NCD-related mortality will increase.
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UPFs are food and drink items that have undergone heavy processing during their production. Examples include carbonated drinks, ready-made meals, some frozen foods and many packaged breads. UPFs are generally high in salt, fat and sugar, and often contain artificial additives. They are inexpensive, convenient and easily accessible, and are typically targeted at the younger population or socially disadvantaged groups. UPFs are now widely available and are increasingly consumed by a large majority of the population.
The narrative review and meta-analysis study of national surveys from 13 countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Italy, Mexico, Portugal, South Korea, Taiwan, the UK and the US) have reported that diets high in UPFs were directly associated with an increase in NCD. The authors of this study designed the Nova food classification system, which groups foods by level of processing, ranging from group one (unprocessed or minimally processed foods) to four (ultra-processed). The meta-analysis estimated a 34.7kcal increase in total daily energy intake for each 10% increase in UPFs’ share of the diet. This increase in UPF share also correlated with higher consumption of free sugars and total and saturated fat, and low consumption of fibre and protein. This evidence supports the hypothesis that the displacement of Nova 1 food by Nova 4 is a key determinant of the multiple diet-related NCDs.
This study adds to the evidence that UPF are a risk for NCDs. Cases of NCDs are rising sharply. According to GlobalData, the diagnosed prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes in the 16 major markets (16MM: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, the UK and the US) will increase from 245 million cases in 2025 to 262 million cases by 2028 and obesity will increase from 340 million in 2025 to 350 million in 2031.
UPF consumption must be reduced by adults and children to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Public health policy directing the choice towards healthy food is needed. This includes increasing taxes on UPF and making healthy choices accessible and affordable. Further research is also needed to identify effective public health strategies to mitigate the negative effects of UPF in the diet.
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