Centrexion Therapeutics’ CNTX-4975 Likelihood of Approval (LoA) in osteoarthritis-associated knee pain went up by 5 points to 30% after a Phase III trial was completed, as of 16 June.

The Phase III study is evaluating CNTX-4975, a formulation of transcapsaicin that targets TRPV1. The drug is injected directly into the joint and intended to disrupt pain-sensing nerve fibre signalling locally and selectively. CNTX-4975 is being tested as a treatment for chronic moderate-to-severe osteoarthritis knee pain and the study is one of three Phase III trials evaluating CNTX-4975 in that indication. The trial’s entry on ClinicalTrials.gov was changed to “completed” on 14 June, but results have not been added.

Boston, Massachusetts-based Centrexion had raised $40.5m in October 2020 to develop and in-license drug candidates. CNTX-4975 is one of its lead candidates and it was granted a Fast Track designation for the treatment of moderate-to-severe pain associated with knee osteoarthritis in 2018.

With this change, the drug’s Phase Transition Success Rate (PTSR) also went up by 7 points to 44%. PTSR is the probability, given as a percentage, of a drug progressing successfully from one development stage to the next. The LoA metric is calculated by compounding the PTSR at each stage the drug is yet to progress through and uses and uses a combination of machine learning and a proprietary algorithm.