Hutchmed’s fruquintinib for metastatic biliary tract cancer saw its Phase Transition Success Rate (PTSR) boost 11 points to 74% after its Phase I trial completed. The PTSR score change occurred on 21 June after updated the trial from not yet recruiting to completed on 16 June. PTSR is the probability, given as a percentage, of a drug progressing successfully from one development stage to the next.

The 28-patient Phase I (NCT04557397) tested the effects of Johnson & Johnson’s (NYSE:JNJ) Sporanox (itraconazole) and rifampin on fruquintinib in an open-label,  crossover study, according to Fruquintinib is an oral vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR) inhibitor, while Sporanox is a CYP3A inhibitor and rifampin is a CYP3A inducer. Though the original estimated completion date was 31 January 2021, the update listed the trial as completed on 18 October 2020.

Despite the PTSR jump, the Phase I update did not affect the drug’s Likelihood of Approval (LoA), which remained at 1%. LoA is identified via GlobalData’s analysis using a combination of machine learning and its proprietary algorithm and is calculated by compounding the PTSR at each stage the drug is yet to progress through. Both LoA and PTSR can be calculated for a drug by considering characteristics like therapy area, indication and molecule type.

Hutchmed has a market cap of $3.81bn.

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