Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine ’s SHR-1020 (famitinib) for bile duct cancer saw its Phase Transition Success Rate (PTSR) tank nine points to 25% after withdrawing its Phase II. The PTSR score change occurred on 23 June after ClinicalTrials.gov updated the trial from “not yet recruiting” to “withdrawn” on 16 June. PTSR is the probability, given as a percentage, of a drug progressing successfully from one development stage to the next.

The Phase II (NCT04479904) withdrew due to difficulty screening subjects, according to ClinicalTrials.gov. It was originally intended to recruit 37 patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma patients with fibroblast growth factor receptor2 (FGFR2) genetic aberrations who had failed first-line therapy, as part of an open-label study.

The withdrawn Phase II also generated a 2-point drop in the drug’s Likelihood of Approval (LoA), which fell to 8%. LoA is identified via GlobalData’s analysis using a combination of machine learning and its proprietary algorithm and is calculated by compounding the PTSR at each stage the drug is yet to progress through. Both LoA and PTSR can be calculated for a drug by considering characteristics like therapy area, indication and molecule type.

Jiangsu Hengrui has a market cap of $455.18bn.