The global treatment market for non-hematological cancers is expected to almost double from $72.9bn in 2014 to $140.8bn by 2021, at a compound annual growth rate of 9.9%, according to a new report from GBI Research.
The report entitled ‘Global Non-Hematological Cancers Market to 2021- Strong Growth Driven by Increased Uptake of Low Toxicity Targeted Treatments and Versatile Biologics’ mentions that the predicted growth will occur despite the patent expiries of several commercially successful products, such as Avastin, Erbitux and Herceptin.
Avastin will first expire in the European Union (EU) in 2018, with the two others drugs listed having already expired in 2014.
According to the report, market drivers will include the growing prevalence of cancer globally, and launch of more targeted treatments that are expected to improve the overall survival of poor-performance-status patients and enable additional rounds of chemotherapy to be administered.
GBI Research associate analyst Adam Bradbury said: "These drugs are all monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), and are therefore expected to be less susceptible to market share and price erosion following patent expiry, due to practical and regulatory barriers to entry for biosimilars.
"In this way, these expirations will not pose too strong a barrier to growth."
The company also noted that currently a total of 2,954 non-hematological oncology products are in active development, with 171 in phase III development or pre-registration.
Bradbury added: "Although none of the products in the late-stage pipeline are expected to reach the same levels of success as the highest revenue-generating drugs currently in the market, due to the competitiveness of the landscape, there are a number of candidates that are expected to achieve strong sales during the forecast period.
"These include AZD-4736 and neratinib, which are both forecast to generate blockbuster revenues by 2021. A range of companies are actively involved in the development or marketing of these new oncology products, including most of the top 20 pharmaceutical companies, smaller publicly traded companies and privately held enterprises. In particular, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, and Novartis, are anticipated to maintain their strong market shares throughout the forecast period.
"While Roche’s market share within non-blood cancers is anticipated to decrease, partly due to the approaching patent expiries of Avastin and Tarceva, Roche is still expected to maintain the highest market share for non-hematological cancer treatment of any company throughout the forecast period."
Image: Global treatment market for non-hematological cancers to double by 2021. Photo: courtesy of GBI Research.