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April 28, 2020

Daily Economic Forecast: GDP – Major Western nations all down – Italy to see drop of more than 8%

By Paul Dennis

28 April

Global economic forecasts for major western nations hit by Covid-19 have been revised downwards again – with Italy now set to see its GDP drop by more than 8% during the year.

The latest figures from GlobalData suggest the UK’s economy will shrink by 5.4%, France’s by 6.0% and Germany’s by 5.2%. All three of those forecasts are worse than similar figures produced the previous week.

Japan has seen an even sharper dip in its economic prospects after a rise in Covid-19 cases saw prime minister Shinzo Abe declare a national state of emergency. GlobalData now predict negative GDP growth of 4.4% for Japan across 2020 – down from a predicted 3.2% the previous week.

Overall, the global economy is now expected to shrink by 2.2% in 2020 – a slight improvement on the 2.3% predicted the previous week. That is mainly down to relative success in containing major coronavirus outbreaks to Europe, North America and parts of Asia – so far.

Major stock markets indices in the UK, France, Germany and Italy were stable this week but remain at below 90% of pre-pandemic levels.

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Covid-19 macroeconomic dashboard

We are using exclusive dynamic figures provided by GlobalData analysts to track key economic indicators in major world economies hit by Covid-19.

Deaths from the virus are plotted alongside the indexed performance of each country’s major stock exchange. Figures are tracked daily from 1 March, 2020.

Covid-19 macroeconomic dashboard

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