April is Autism Awareness Month, dedicated to increasing understanding, broadening opportunities, and creating change for people with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and their families. Part of this work includes improving and broadening research on ASD to better understand this neurodevelopmental disorder and how to leverage research to improve outcomes. A recent nationwide study of children with ASD published in Nature by Ariel Israel and colleagues investigated the association with gestational age and ASD risk and highlights the need for more research on ASD risk factors and ASD more broadly.
Israel and colleagues found a dose-response relationship between gestational age at birth and ASD risk, with ASD risk increasing with prematurity. Children who were less than 28 weeks at gestation were found to have more than four times the risk of developing ASD compared to term births (37–42 weeks) (OR:4.37, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.26–8.44). This increased risk was observed for all gestational ages under 37 weeks, with the smallest effect size observed for children with a gestational age of 36 weeks (OR: 1.31, 95% CI 1.04–1.64). Risk of ASD increased sequentially with shorter gestational ages, suggesting a new risk factor for ASD diagnosis. Though this single study does not formalise a causal relationship between ASD and prematurity, it strongly suggests that more research is needed to understand this relationship and the mechanism driving it.
Go deeper with GlobalData
Access deeper industry intelligence
Experience unmatched clarity with a single platform that combines unique data, AI, and human expertise.
GlobalData monitors data for ASD across the 16 major markets (16MM: the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, and South Korea), and data suggests there will be a slight decrease in diagnosed prevalent cases, down from over 13.9 million in 2026 to 13.5 million in 2034. Trends across age groups are heterogeneous. However, older age groups are forecast to see the largest increase in diagnosed prevalent cases of ASD.
Cases diagnosed in adults aged 85 years and older are forecast to increase at an annual growth rate of more than 6% between 2024 and 2034 due to ageing populations across the 16MM. As the epidemiology of ASD shifts with changing underlying demography and diagnosis trends, more research will be needed to better understand this disorder. This study highlights an emerging understanding of prematurity as a risk factor for ASD and calls for more research into this relationship and the science of ASD more broadly. This Autism Awareness Month, new research reminds individuals how much there is still to learn about ASD and how critical this research is to improving outcomes for people with ASD and their families.
