AstraZeneca’s AZD2811 in refractory acute myeloid leukaemia had its Likelihood of Approval (LoA) drop by one point on the heels of its Phase I/II listing, updated as completed on 27 May. AZD2811’s Phase Transition Success Rate (PTSR) also dropped by five points from 9%, as of 1 June. The asset previously had an LoA of 3%, decreasing to 2%.

The 50-patient Phase I/II trial was investigating the maximum tolerated dose, safety, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacokinetics of AZD2111 as a monotherapy or in combination with various agents, as per AZD2811 is a nanoparticle which is a selective inhibitor of aurora B kinase.

LoA is identified via GlobalData’s analysis using a combination of machine learning and its proprietary algorithm. LoA is calculated by compounding the PTSR at each stage the drug is yet to progress through. PTSR is the probability, given as a percentage, of a drug progressing successfully from one development stage to the next. Both LoA and PTSR can be calculated for a drug by considering characteristics like therapy area, indication and molecule type.

AstraZeneca has a market cap of $148.34bn.

Reynald Castaneda is an Associate Editor for Clinical Trials Arena parent company GlobalData’s investigative journalism team. A version of this article originally appeared on the Insights module of GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center. To access more articles like this, visit GlobalData.