Cytokinetics’ omecamtiv mecarbil in Phase I paediatric heart failure had its Phase Transition Success Rate (PTSR) drop by six points to 65% despite no change in its Likelihood of Approval (LoA) of 5%. The update happened on 1 June, on the back of Amgen officially terminating its collaboration with Cytokinetics in developing the asset, effective 20 May.

PTSR is the probability, given as a percentage, of a drug progressing successfully from one development stage to the next. The decoupling between Cytokinetics and Amgen was first announced in November 2020, with the former to develop omecamtiv mecarbil independently or with another partner in the future.

LoA is identified via GlobalData’s analysis using a combination of machine learning and its proprietary algorithm. LoA is calculated by compounding the PTSR at each stage the drug is yet to progress through. Both LoA and PTSR can be calculated for a drug by considering characteristics like therapy area, indication and molecule type.

Cytokinetics has a $1.60bn market cap, while Amgen’s is $136.28bn.

Reynald Castaneda is an Associate Editor for Clinical Trials Arena parent company GlobalData’s investigative journalism team. A version of this article originally appeared on the Insights module of GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center. To access more articles like this, visit GlobalData.

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