Novartis ’ Phase II post-operative corneal induced chronic pain (CICP) candidate SAF312 saw its Phase Transition Success Rate (PTSR) leap by nine points to 70% alongside a five-point bump in its Likelihood of Approval (LoA) to 37%, as of 7 June.

The change occurred after a series of updates were made to the Phase II study’s ClinicalTrials.gov entry, between 6 May and 4 June. These included the addition of 14 trial locations and moving ahead the estimated primary completion date from 14 November 2022 to 24 October 2022.

PTSR is the probability, given as a percentage, of a drug progressing successfully from one development stage to the next. In the 150-patient Phase II trial patients receive twice-daily eye drops of a placebo or one of two doses of SAF312. The study is using a primary endpoint of change in mean pain severity. SAF312 is a non-narcotic analgesic and TRPV cation channel antagonist designed to treat postoperative ocular pain.

GlobalData’s analysis uses a combination of machine learning and its proprietary algorithm to identify the LoA. It is calculated by compounding the PTSR at each stage the drug is yet to progress through. Both LoA and PTSR can be calculated for a drug by considering characteristics like therapy area, indication and molecule type.

Novartis has a market cap of $229.42bn.

William Newton is a Healthcare Reporter for Clinical Trials Arena parent company GlobalData’s investigative journalism team. A version of this article originally appeared on the Insights module of GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center. To access more articles like this, visit GlobalData.