Terns Pharmaceuticals TERN-101 had its Phase Transition Success Rate (PTSR) jump by 16 points to 54% in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) on the back of positive topline Phase IIa trial data. PTSR is the probability, given as a percentage, of a drug progressing successfully from one development stage to the next.

TERN-101’s PTSR was updated on 15 June, the day after Terns announced data from the Phase IIa LIFT trial in NASH (14 June). LIFT had a primary endpoint investigating treatment-related adverse events, with the company noting there were no Grade 3 pruritus events with TERN-101 and there were no discontinuations due to pruritus. There were no LDL-cholesterol changes with the 5mg and 10mg dose but there was a statistically significant change in the 15mg arm. TERN-101 is a nonbile acid FXR agonist.

As for TERN-101’s Likelihood of Approval (LoA), it increased by 3 points to 9%. LoA is identified via GlobalData’s analysis using a combination of machine learning and its proprietary algorithm. It is calculated by compounding the PTSR at each stage the drug is yet to progress through. Both LoA and PTSR can be calculated for a drug by considering characteristics like therapy area, indication and molecule type.

Terns has a $394.5m market cap.

Reynald Castaneda is an Associate Editor for Clinical Trials Arena parent company GlobalData’s investigative journalism team. A version of this article originally appeared on the Insights module of GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center. To access more articles like this, visit GlobalData.

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