In 2015, GlobalData estimated the total ovarian cancer market was valued at $1.233B across seven major markets (7MM; US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan), with the US accounting for 47.2 percent of the market. From 2015 to 2025, GlobalData expects the 7MM sales to substantially increase, reaching $5.205B by 2025, which represents a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.5 percent. This is depicted in Figure 1.
Figure 1: 7MM Sales from Ovarian Cancer Therapeutic Agents by Region, 2015 and 2025. Source: GlobalData
The key driver of growth within the 7MM ovarian cancer market will be the establishment of new standard-of-care (SOC) maintenance therapies in the first and second lines of treatment for newly diagnosed and recurrent patients. The anticipated extended durations of therapy in the maintenance settings should fuel the sales of PARP inhibitors and immune checkpoint modulators, as their efficacy data are expected to justify their expensive price tags. GlobalData’s primary and secondary research has concluded that the PARP inhibitors are expected to be a major addition to the treatment paradigm for patients with deleterious germline or somatic BRCA mutations or BRCA-like phenotypes. AstraZeneca’s Lynparza (olaparib) was the first-to-market PARP inhibitor in the US and EU when it was first approved in December 2014. Since then, Clovis Oncology’s Rubraca (rucaparib) and Tesaro’s Zejula (niraparib) have joined the market in the US, with Tesaro’s product being the only approved drug in the class to not have its label limited to use in only patients with a BRCA mutation.
There are currently no PARP inhibitors approved in Japan, which represents a major opportunity for developers of these agents to increase their global market share. Late-stage pipeline immune checkpoint modulators, such as Roche’s Tecentriq (atezolizumab) and Merck KGaA/Pfizer’s Bavencio (avelumab), are expected to satisfy the unmet need for therapies in the first or second lines of therapy for patients who do not have BRCA mutations or who do not have BRCA-like phenotypes. However, many key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData suggested that companies with immune checkpoint modulators and other immuno-oncology (IO) products need to do a better job of identifying specific populations that are likely to respond to drug treatment. This, in turn, will increase overall response rates (ORRs) and improve median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) data to justify the price tags of expensive IO-based treatments. The importance of the identification of specific patient populations that will benefit from a novel drug is expected to increase over the coming years, as new treatments are approved across the 7MM and the market becomes more fragmented across all lines of therapy.
GlobalData (2017). Opportunity Analyzer: Ovarian Cancer – Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2025, to be published April 2017
GlobalData (2017), Comment Wire: Roche Expected to Remain Ovarian Cancer Drug Market Leader, March 2017
GlobalData (2017), Expert Insight: PARP Inhibitor Market in Ovarian Cancer Set for a Showdown, February 2017, GDHC1237EI
GlobalData (2017). Expert Insight: ImmunoGen is Poised to Solve a Major Unmet Medical Need in Ovarian Cancer, January 2017, GDHC1196EI
GlobalData (2016). Immuno-Oncology Strategic Insight: Multi-Indication and Market Size Analysis, April 2016, GDHC057POA