Despite strides in extending human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, cervical cancer remains the second most common cause of cancer-related mortality among women in Mexico. Reduction in cervical cancer incidence is therefore a crucial undertaking for Mexican medical and public health authorities. In their recent entry in The Lancet Regional Health – Americas, Abraham García-Gil and colleagues have made a valuable contribution to this effort by measuring the disease burden of HPV on a national scale. By providing a comprehensive estimate of HPV’s prevalence and clinical segmentations across Mexico, the authors provide insights into the effects of the country’s HPV vaccination efforts, which have significant implications for the epidemiology of cervical cancer and other HPV-related cancers.
GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that between 2025 and 2026, the diagnosed incident cases of HPV-related cancers in Mexico will show a modest increase from 11,100 cases to around 11,500 cases. Provided that Mexico’s HPV vaccination campaign continues to mitigate the prevalence of HPV infection, these estimates are expected to remain stable or, optimistically, show signs of a decline.
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García-Gil and colleagues conducted their analysis of HPV’s burden in Mexico through the Aliados por la Salud campaign, which collected electronic health records from 596,944 female patients of all ages receiving outpatient cervical cancer screening throughout the country in 2023. In addition to demographic and clinical data, patient surveys targeting relevant health behaviours were administered. Data indicated that HPV was prevalent in 21.8% of the population. 10.8% of participants had received HPV vaccination. When comparing age-specific prevalence, women younger than 25 years old demonstrated the highest burden of infection at 37.4%, with progressively decreasing prevalence among patients with advancing age.
The prevalence of HPV was highest among states with the lowest vaccination rates. These rates were observed specifically among women under the age of 25 years – the population prioritised for HPV vaccination since Mexico launched its national HPV vaccination campaign in 2012.
The findings from García-Gil and colleagues’ study show some signs of progress in Mexico’s effort to reduce the prevalence of HPV, and by extension, reduce the disease burden of HPV-associated diseases such as cervical cancer. The findings are also illustrative of future priorities in the country’s vaccination campaign. The high burden of HPV infection in women under 25 suggests a need for more comprehensive advocacy for prophylaxis. State-specific data indicating the relation between low vaccination rates and high HPV prevalence indicates that national or state resources may need to be bolstered or restructured within afflicted regions. More than a decade after the advent of Mexico’s HPV vaccination campaign, signs of progress appear evident yet fraught by demographic and geographic imbalance. To validate and improve these indicators, epidemiological scholarship such as that of the authors is critical.
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By GlobalData